The Nets are mathematically eliminated from the East’s No. 5 seed.
Even if they win each of their final three games, starting with Wednesday’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons, the NBA’s tiebreaker rules are clearly defined.
Three straight wins for the Nets and three season-ending losses for the fifth-seeded Knicks would tie the city’s two pro basketball teams at 46 wins and 36 losses apiece. When that happens, the team with the better head-to-head record claims the higher seed.
The Nets and Knicks, of course, are tied in their season series at 2-2.
Assuming the Nets also beat the Philadelphia 76ers in the season finale, the city’s two teams would also be tied in their division record at eight wins and eight losses each, the next set of tie-breaking criteria to establish playoff pecking order.
Here’s where the Nets draw the short end of the stick: better record against teams in the playoffs or tied for a playoff spot. The Knicks have an 18-16 record against the top 10 seeds in the Eastern Conference.
The Nets come in at 17-17, cementing their ceiling as the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot to lock in a date with the No. 3 seeded Philadelphia 76ers.
There’s a lot more downside, however, to the last leg of the season than there is wiggle room to move up the standings.
While winning out merely helps Brooklyn stand pat at six, losing out could have significant implications on the Nets’ odds at making the playoffs altogether.
And with the seventh-seeded Heat only one game behind in the standings, the Nets can ill-afford to drop any of their remaining games — even if they’ve swept the season series against the Heat, 4-0.
Friendly reminder: If the Nets drop below the sixth seed, they will be forced to fight for No. 7 in the sudden-death play-in tournament. Here’s what happens based on the number of wins or losses to close the season:
That’s the magic number. If the Nets defeat the Pistons on Wednesday, they will only need to secure one additional victory to ensure a playoff berth. Because the Nets hold the tiebreaker over the Heat and lead them in the standings by one game, there is no scenario where two wins and one loss doesn’t guarantee Brooklyn the sixth seed.
Even if the Heat win all three of their games.
The Nets play their final two regular-season games of the season at Barclays Center. They host the Orlando Magic on Friday before closing out against Joel Embiid and the championship-contending 76ers on Sunday.
A few notes here, however: The Sixers are two games behind the Boston Celtics for the No. 2 seed, yet only 2.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Reports have already surfaced out of Cleveland suggesting the Cavaliers would prefer to play the Nets in the first round of the playoffs. If they catch the Sixers in the standings, and the Nets hold onto the sixth seed, it could happen.
Orlando also isn’t a team to overlook, even if its standing at 13th in the East suggests otherwise.
The Magic started the season 5-20 and have won 29 of their last 54 games. In fact, they beat the Nets, albeit in the second game of a back to back, on March 26.
If the Nets lose two of their last three games, and if the Heat win three in a row, Brooklyn will fall to the seventh seed into the play-in tournament — but will retain home-court advantage and will not face elimination unless it loses to the eighth seed in the seven-eight game.
The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors entered Wednesday tied for the eighth seed at 40-39 with three games remaining on the schedule. If the Nets fell to seven and lost in the opening play-in tournament game, they would then play against the winner of the game between seeds No. 9 and 10 (Chicago Bulls).
The winner takes the eighth and final playoff seed. The loser is eliminated.
The Nets statistically can’t fall any lower than seventh in the standings. That’s because they hold the tiebreaker over both the Raptors and the Hawks in their respective season series this season.
The Nets swept the season series against the Raptors this season and beat the Hawks three times in their four matchups.
As a result, Brooklyn will retain home-court playoff advantage even if they lose out.
Losing out, however, wouldn’t give the Nets much confidence entering a fight for their playoff livelihood. Every game counts as Brooklyn continues the fight to make the playoffs this season.