They are legends; our national sporting treasures. The U.S. women are two-time defending World Cup champs, four-time titlists overall, ranked No. 1 yet again by FIFA, unbeaten and untied this year in seven international matches. They won the very first women’s World Cup in 1991, in China, then burned their way into our consciousness in 1999, with a glorious victory on home soil. Through the decades, along the way, they have conquered a roll call of worthy challengers, while championing societal issues such as equal pay and gay rights.
The fabled names make their own kind of music, and the best case for another victory: Michelle Akers, Mia Hamm, Brandi Chastain, Hope Solo, Abby Wambach, Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe… Who can argue with that line of succession and success?
So, it is easy to assume that the American women are a sure thing to reach another milestone this summer, becoming the first team ever to win three straight World Cups, once that tournament begins next month in New Zealand and Australia.
But any such assumption would be naïve, at best, and it would diminish the challenge that now faces Morgan, Rapinoe, et al. There are many reasons why this 23-woman roster, revealed on Wednesday by coach Vlatko Andonovski, may fall short this time around. There are injuries, bad bounces, penalty calls, intangibles. The Americans are very good, indeed. So are a handful of other teams.
Oddsmakers currently assign the U.S. a 29% chance of winning it all (+250). They are hardly odds-on favorites, yet are a narrow choice over top contenders England, Spain, Germany, France and Sweden.
Here, the case against, and then for, that three-peat:
WHY THE AMERICANS WON’T WIN
Let’s start with the injuries, which have badly impacted this squad. In April, Mallory Swanson (nee Pugh, before her marriage to Cub infielder Dansby Swanson) suffered a torn patella tendon in her left knee during a match against Ireland. Swanson had become the team’s most dangerous offensive threat, scoring seven goals in six games for the Americans this season. Last year, she netted seven goals and seven assists in 15 games. Now, she is not on the roster. Another rising attacker, Catarina Macario, also suffered a knee injury and was left off the team.
Farther back on the field, injuries have hobbled other difference makers. At midfield, the greatest concern is Rose Lavelle, who lit things up at the 2019 World Cup. She also was injured in that match against Ireland, and hasn’t played a minute since. Andonovski selected Lavelle and insists she will recover in time to contribute.
“We expect Rose to have minutes in our send-off game [July 9] and then we’ll move on from there and manage minutes accordingly,” the coach said.
Arguably the biggest loss is at center back, where long-time captain Becky Sauerbrunn was left off the roster because of a lingering foot injury. Sauerbrunn, 38, was the steadying force on the back line, and had hoped to be ready for this tournament. Andonovski disagreed with that timetable, and Sauerbrunn said she understood — sort of.
“I kind of hoped I was going to squeak in maybe as just a presence, as a leader that could just keep the locker room hopefully in a really positive, good vibe state,” she said on the webcast Snacks. “[But] you don’t want somebody, a center-back in particular, that can only play 15 minutes later on in the tournament.”
This is a team in transition, with 14 newcomers to the World Cup. Two years ago, at the Tokyo Olympics, Andonovski did not fare well trying to blend old and new generations. The team settled for third place. He started five different lineups, and none of them really jelled. The coach is definitely on the hot seat in New Zealand. For better or worse, the players understand his vulnerability.
Putting aside all these personnel problems, there is the matter of the competition itself. First, there will be the three-match group stage, no picnic. Vietnam should pose no problem in the opener. That outclassed side represents an opportunity to run up goal difference, and rest starters. The two European teams that follow, Netherlands and Portugal, will be far more difficult.
The Americans played to a 2-2 draw with the ninth-ranked Dutch in Tokyo, before knocking them out on penalty kicks in a quarterfinal. The U.S. defeated Portugal, 1-0, in a difficult friendly two years ago. The young Portuguese goalkeeper, Ines Pereira, was something special.
Everyone expects the Americans to advance from Group E, one way or the other. But if they finish second — or even if they finish first — the brackets may harbor a nasty surprise. Specifically, the women may well find themselves facing Sweden in the Round of 16. Sweden has been America’s kryptonite in recent years. The Swedes can play a cautious, structured, eight-women-behind-the-ball style that has frustrated the U.S. in the past, creating all kinds of counter-attacking opportunities. In Paris, the Swedes did not merely defeat the American women. They humiliated the U.S., 3-0.
Whether or not the Americans face Sweden, there are other potholes ahead. The Europeans are loaded with talent. England, the second favorite, beat the U.S., 2-1, in a hard-fought game last October. Germany split two, 2-1 results with the Americans in November. The U.S. squeaked past France, 2-1, in the 2019 World Cup.
Australia has Sam Kerr, arguably the best player in the world. Canada took gold in Tokyo and is always a thorn in the side. The Canadians, listed at +3300 by bookmakers, may represent the best value bet in the field.
Also, remember: Every opponent brings its best game against the Americans. The U.S. remains the gold standard, even if it only took bronze in Tokyo.
WHY THE AMERICANS WILL WIN
First and foremost, the U.S. has greater quality depth than any other team in New Zealand. When game-maker EA Sport released a list this month of its 100 highest-rated players at the tournament, the Americans only had one member in the top 10 — Morgan, at No. 4. But the U.S. roster included 10 other players among the top-rated 100 — including first-timers Sophia Smith, Trinity Rodman (daughter of Dennis), Casey Murphy and Aubrey Kingsbury.
“We have a roster with depth and versatility and that will help us take on all the challenges that will be coming our way,” Andonovski said. “Every player has a different journey to get to this point so our roster has some amazing stories and we have a really good mix of veterans and younger players.”
Andonovski still has firepower up front, even without Swanson. He has the veteran Morgan, 33, and Sophia Smith, 22, who has slotted a dozen goals already for the national side. Rodman may start, and Lynn Williams figures to come off the bench. Likewise, Naomi Girma and Alana Cook provide able replacements at center back for Sauerbrunn.
Depth is key, obviously, but so is individual brilliance, experience and leadership. That is where Morgan and Rapinoe, 37, offer invaluable presence. Andonovski may have to limit their playing minutes a bit, this time around. Rapinoe likely will come off the bench, and Morgan surely won’t go 90 minutes against Vietnam. Yet when a match comes down to its pivotal moment, look for Morgan or Rapinoe to make the perfect overlapping run, the well-weighted cross, the decisive header.
Above all, Morgan and Rapinoe will force the U.S. players to take full responsibility for their own performances on the field. After losing to Canada in Tokyo, Rapinoe leaped to the defense of Andonovski, placing the blame on herself and teammates.
“This is not, like, ‘Oh we need to play better,’ and getting on each other,” Rapinoe said. “We need to look at ourselves and we need to perform better, period.”
Commutes between matches will not be as brutal at this Cup as they have been in the past. The Americans will be spared too much wearying travel in the first round. All three of those games are played in New Zealand.
Finally, one last plus: There is a inherent, traditional arrogance to this American team that has always served it well. Not every national side boasts that sort of DNA. These women just don’t run. They strut. Their goal celebrations may offend foreign journalists, and their post-game quotes are not always diplomatic nods to opponents.
The U.S. players always believe they are the best. They embrace the pressure, and loathe defeat. They may well win this thing again, in the end. Or not.
Either way, it won’t be a cakewalk.
U.S. WOMEN’S NATIONAL TEAM ROSTER BY POSITION (CLUB; CAPS/GOALS)
GOALKEEPERS (3): Aubrey Kingsbury* (Washington Spirit; 1), Casey Murphy* (North Carolina Courage; 14), Alyssa Naeher*** (Chicago Red Stars; 90)
DEFENDERS (7): Alana Cook* (OL Reign; 24/1), Crystal Dunn** (Portland Thorns FC; 131/24), Emily Fox* (North Carolina Courage; 28/1), Naomi Girma* (San Diego Wave FC; 15/0), Sofia Huerta* (OL Reign; 29/0), Kelley O’Hara**** (NJ/NY Gotham FC; 157/3), Emily Sonnett** (OL Reign; 74/1)
MIDFIELDERS (7): Savannah DeMelo* (Racing Louisville FC; 0/0), Julie Ertz*** (Angel City FC; 118/20), Lindsey Horan** (Olympique Lyon, FRA; 128/27), Rose Lavelle** (OL Reign; 88/24), Kristie Mewis* (NJ/NY Gotham FC; 51/7), Ashley Sanchez* (Washington Spirit; 24/3), Andi Sullivan* (Washington Spirit; 44/3)
FORWARDS (6): Alex Morgan**** (San Diego Wave FC; 206/121), Megan Rapinoe**** (OL Reign; 199/63), Trinity Rodman* (Washington Spirit; 17/2), Sophia Smith* (Portland Thorns FC; 29/12), Alyssa Thompson* (Angel City FC; 3/0), Lynn Williams* (NJ/NY Gotham FC; 52/15)
* First Women’s World Cup
** Second Women’s World Cup
*** Third Women’s World Cup
**** Fourth Women’s World Cup